Friday, 30 April 2010

What's wrong with this picture? (x2)

On Friday 16 April, the day the rushed and poorly reasoned ban on mephedrone and other substituted cathinones became law, it was hardly surprising that the print media - whose hysterical scare-mongering was undoubtedly the major cause of that prohibition - sought to underline the fact. The Metro freesheet, for example, printed this report on the inquest into the death of Laura Main, a.k.a. DJ Lady Asbo:


The headline is clear enough, declaring emphatically: "Drug death student took meow meow," before going on to state: "A law student... was found dead after taking a cocktail of alcohol and drugs including mephedrone and GHB, an inquest heard." Similarly, the Daily Mail led with, "Law student who led 'Lady Asbo' double life... died after taking meow meow," and, "A talented law student... died after taking a cocktail of alcohol and drugs including meow meow, an inquest heard." The Sun also toed the party line with, "Drugs binge law girl took meow," and, "A pretty law student who led a secret double life... was found dead in her flat after taking a lethal cocktail of party drugs including deadly meow meow, an inquest heard today."

You can see where these three "newspapers" were going with this, can't you? Leading the reader to regard mephedrone as the primary cause of Main's death, thus justifying the ban. Yet the articles all went on to acknowledge that while she had taken a combination of mephedrone, valium, and GHB, on top of alcohol, in delivering a verdict of misadventure, Westminster coroner Paul Knapman emphatically stated: "The relevant drug is GHB and the cause of death was given as the combined effects of GHB and alcohol."

Alcohol, of course, remains legal, while GHB (gamma-Hydroxybutyric acid) was already a Class C drug, having been outlawed in June 2003. It is therefore patently absurd that all three newspapers chose to highlight - and therefore implicate - mephedrone, which although it was taken, was not the cause of her death.

The second issue as regards Metro's report is an ironic one in light of the press's propensity to claim the moral high ground. As can be seen above, the paper illustrated its report with a photograph of Main credited to "National News." This photograph was also used by the Daily Mail, with a similar credit, although that isn't surprising given that booth publications are owned by the same company, Associated Newspapers. The problem is that the picture was used in both newspapers without the knowledge of the original photographer.

An observant member of the clubbing social networking site DontStayIn.com (DSI) identified the original uncropped version hosted on it, and the photographer confirmed that his permission had not been sought by either the Daily Mail, Metro, or National News. The Sun, meanwhile, not only used the same and also another DSI phtotograph in its print edition, but also lifted one of Main's own from the site to illustrate its online report, although it seems unlikely that her family were approached for permission to do so.

Meanwhile, the demise of the legality of mephedrone et al was marked by two infinitely more accurate, honest, and pragmatic pieces in the esteemed medical journal The Lancet on 17 April. Kelly Moore's article directly addressing the ban and its implications opened with an interesting piece of direct attribution:
"The exceptionally rapid rise in use of mephedrone and related cathinone derivatives in the UK has caused the Home Secretary Alan Johnson to ban the substances, within the same class as amphetamines (class B)..."
This acknowledges two basic truths, firstly the rapidity with which the use of mephedrone spread, and secondly that effectively it was its sheer popularity that led to its prohibition. Had it not "taken off" in the way it did throughout the second half of 2009, it would arguably still be legal now.

Morris went on to emphasise that the sheer novelty of mephedrone was reflected in the almost total lack of scientific literature on the substance, particularly as relates to its potential for harm, despite this being the main driving force behind calls for it to be banned. Unusually, most of the early research comes from Sweden, contemporaneous with, "the death of an 18-year-old Swedish woman, reported in December, 2008, in which mephedrone was the only substance detected post mortem." David Gustavsson, who was involved in this patient's care, stated: "When I first started to look into mephedrone, I was struck by the fact that no reliable information was available at all."

It was soon discovered that it was being used as a, "fully acceptable substitute for ecstasy and amphetamine/cocaine." Gustavsson doubted the common assumption that young people who had not used drugs were experimenting with mephedrone because its legality was equated with safety. It was more the case that experienced users were disatisfied with the availability and quality of illegal drugs. In fact, many were eschewing the controlled substances in favour of mephedrone, but some were concerned with its addictive nature. By the autumn of 2008, mephedrone was the most popular legal drug in Sweden, but in the December of that year it was classed as hazardous, and internet sales were restricted, but that merely resulted in a shift to person-to-person dealing.

Stefan Sparring, senior consultant at the publicly-funded Maria Ungdom clinic for under-20s in Stockholm, stated:
"The drug quickly moved to the illicit trade in the streets, and we still saw new cases every week. In the spring of 2009 it was classed as a narcotic and after that we thought we could see a trend of it disappearing."
Instead, after mephedrone was made illegal, another substituted cathinone - methedrone (para-methoxymethcathinone) - flooded the market, and was subsequently implicated in two deaths. With both mephedrone and methedrone now banned in Sweden, Sparring observed: "[now] we have flephedrone instead, and it just continues."

It was perhaps with the clear failure of Sweden's experience of having to ban one substance after another in mind that resulted in the UK Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs (ACMD) recommending a blanket ban on almost all the 34 legal derivatives of cathinone, four - cathinone itself, methcathinone, diethylpropion, and pyrovalerone - having already been outlawed individually. Naphyrone chemically fell outside of the ACMD's generic defintion, while bupropion had established medical uses and low abuse potential, and so was exempted.

Morris went on to note that experience had shown that new substances were invariably developed in response to other legal ones being banned, and in fact naphyrone was already being marketed - under the name "NRG-1" - as a mephedrone replacement (see below). In a joint editorial for the journal Addiction by Adam Winstock of the National Addiction Centre, London, and John Ramsay of St George's University, London, it was stated:
"What has changed is an increase in their [designer drugs] range, potency, profile and availability. The development of global web-based marketing and distribution networks, as distinct from illegal street markets, has emerged concurrently, challenging further the utility of existing supply reduction strategies. While in no way does 'legal' confer relative safety, it does mean that a broader repertoire of responses is available."
If a substance is legal to supply for human consumption, both quality and dosage can be controlled in a way that is inherently impossible if it is illegal.

In the same issue as Morris's article, the editorial of The Lancet was even more scathing of the government's handling of both the substituted cathinones ban, but also the long-running issues with the ACMD, noting that, "One sacking and seven resignations is not a good track record for any organisation," and that concerns over both how it operated, and the clearly political pressure it was being subjected to, "left a bitter taste." In the wake of the sacking of Professor David Nutt as the Council's chairman, and the reusltant first round of resignations, the Home Office had attempted to introduce a revised code of practice that, "compromised scientists' independence and would dissuade them from giving objective advice lest they disagreed with government policy."

Dealing specifically with the new legislation, the editorial highlighted the fact that although mephedrone had, "received substantial media attention in the UK after reportedly being linked to 25 deaths," the ACMD's report that recommended the ban, "documented the very scanty evidence on mephedrone, including the absence of a direct causal link between the reported deaths and the drug." In fact, the report was only in draft form, and was still being discussed by the Council when replacement chairman Professor Les Iverson, "rushed out of the meeting to brief Home Secretary Alan Johnson of their recommendation in time for a press briefing." The editorial concluded that:
"There was little time to consider carefully the scientific
evidence on mephedrone. The ACMD did not have suffi cient evidence to judge the harms caused by this drug class. It is too easy and potentially counterproductive to ban each new substance that comes along rather than seek to understand more about young people's motivations and how we can infl uence them. We should try to support healthy behaviours rather than simply punish people who breach our society’s norms. Making the drug illegal will also deter crucial research on this drug and other drug-related behaviour, and it will be far more difficult for people with problems to get help."
Two weeks on, it is clear that events are unfolding exactly as expected. Even before the ban came into effect, a typically alarmist piece in The Sun on 31 March claimed that NRG-1 (i.e. naphyrone), "will kill many more than [mephedrone]," even though it has not been linked to any deaths whatsoever. The report was accompanied by a graphic that - with staggering scientific imbecility - claimed that, "the molecular make-up of ecstasy, mephedrone and NRG-1 are terrifyingly similar," when they clearly aren't:


The Observer reported on 18 April that, "a synthetic chemical known as MDAI has already emerged as a successor to the drug mephedrone, which was banned in Britain this weekend." MDAI was developed as an antidepressant in the 1990s specifically as a non-neurotoxic analogue of MDA (3,4-Methylenedioxyamphetamine), which itself had had some popularity as a club drug in the United States before being eclipsed by MDMA in the 1980s.

On 24 April the Daily Mail reported on, "a filthy Shanghai laboratory," where even more novel substances were supposedly being created for the UK market. The lab was supposedly the source of what was being marketed as NRG-1, except the owner - known only as "Eric" - maintained that he had, "lied to some vendors to spread confusion, saying the new drug is naphyrone." The Mail claimed that although they had a sample, "expensive testing" was the only way its true nature could be proved. This seems an extreme get-out, to say the least, given that there are more than a few organisations and academic faculties working in this field that would be glad to test it for free as part of their ongoing studies.

Curiouser and curiouser....

Tuesday, 13 April 2010

How long is this particular piece of string?

One thing that was very conspicuous in its absence during the recent media frenzy over mephedrone was any real acknowledgement of either the scale of the trade, or how legitimately it was being operated. Quite unexpectedly, though, Hansard's transcription of Parliamentary business revealed what could be counted as a useful and interesting proxy in the form of a written answer to a question put by the Conservative Enfield Southgate MP David Burrowes:
Import Duties: Mephedrone

Mr. Burrowes: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer how much has been collected in import duty on mephedrone in each of the last three years. [325798]

Mr. Timms: Mephedrone is listed as a Home Office controlled drug. Import consignments of mephedrone will have been entered under commodity codes 293299 85 90 (prior to 1 January 2009) and 293299 00 90 (from 1 January 2009).

The information requested is set out in the following table. Imported mephedrone attracts an import duty rate of 6.5 per cent.

Import duty collected on consignments of mephedrone (£)
2007 - 174,900.06
2008 - 158,546.69
2009 - 250,857.43

[Source: ''Hansard'', 7 April 2010]
Not surprisingly, this information didn't go entirely un-noticed by the press, with The Sun reporting a few days later:
Government makes £2m profit on meow

THE taxman has made £2million from deadly drug meow meow, it emerged yesterday.


Import duties and VAT on sales of the powder totted up to the huge sum.

Treasury Minister Stephen Timms slipped out the import duty figures in an end-of-parliament written answer about the drug - linked to 27 deaths in the UK.

He said mephedrone, the drug's official name, raised £584,000 during three years.

But the official take from the "legal high" is even more - with all sales subject to VAT. This raked in an estimated £1.5million, The Sun can reveal.

Tory David Burrowes, who asked for the import duty figures, said: "Many will think it's obscene that so much money has been raised by the Government while so many young people have suffered."

Meow meow was ordered to be banned by Parliament just hours before it packed up on Thursday for the General Election. It will be illegal from next Friday.

The Sun had campaigned for a ban and told yesterday how the mum of Will Filer, 18, blamed the drug for his hanging death last month.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Grayling last night blasted ministers for "dithering" over banning the drug.

[Source: ''The Sun'', 10 April 2010]
As can only be expected from this "newspaper," there is a certain amount of spin here, with the pejorative adjective of "deadly" being used, as well as the claim of it being, "linked to 27 deaths in the UK," but we'll put that to one side for a moment, and look at the maths first.

As noted, the import duty detailed above was levied at 6.5%, so the declared value of the mephedrone on import would have been:

2007 - £2,690,770.15
2008 - £2,439,179.85
2009 - £3,859,345.08
Total = £8,989,295.08

If 17.5% VAT was also applied on import - as would be expected - that would give us the following:

2007 - £470,884.78
2008 - £426,856.47
2009 - £675,385.39
Total = £1,573,126.64

The Sun's figure of "£1.5 million," then, seems valid. Except, of course, that that's only the VAT on import. A cursory examination of various sites selling mephedrone and other substituted cathinones I did a few months ago showed that many of them were charging VAT at the point of resale within the UK. I'm not much up on tax legislation, but would assume that VAT charges on import would be offset again VAT at resale, rather than being in addition to them. Anecdotally it seems that mephedrone was on average being resold at ten times its cost from the manufacturers in China, so imported product worth just under £9 million would therefore be resold at around £90 million, meaning potential VAT earnings not of £1.57 million, but a whopping £15.73 million!

Now let's return to the issue of just how much imported mephedrone the above figures represents. Again we have to rely on anecdotal evidence on various forums and discussion boards, but overall it seems that prices progressively dropped from £4,500 to £1,500 per kilo, so let's apply those to 2007 & 2009, and £3,000 for 2008. This would convert the above declared value on import over the three years to the following weights:

2007 - 598kg
2008 - 813kg
2009 - 2,573kg
Total = 3,984kg

This would seem to tally well with the widely reported situation of mephedrone being used on only a very limited but expanding scale in 2007-2008, before demand increased dramatically throughout 2009, something that has been attributed to both the decline in quality of cocaine, and the almost complete drying up of supplies of MDMA throughout the same year.

Regardless of why it ended up in the UK, though, a shade under four metric tonnes of mephedrone is clearly a huge amount, but what does that equate to in terms of doses? There seem to be many stories of people bingeing on a whole gramme or more in a single session, but these would appear to be very much the exception, rather than the norm. For the sake of argument, then, let's assume an average does of half a gramme, which would mean that the aforementioned 3,984kg would be good for a staggering 7,968,000 doses.

Let's return to the issue of the reputed 27 deaths claimed by The Sun, and many other newspapers lately. This undoubtedly has its origins in a report from the National Programme on Substance Abuse Deaths (np-SAD) to the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs (ACMD), which was cited in the latter's report on substituted cathinones to the Home Secretary on 29 March that initiated the impending ban.

The np-SAD report noted that upto 26 March 2010, there had been 18 deaths in the England, eight in Scotland, and one on the Channel Island of Guernsey, which does indeed come to a total of 27. However, it also clearly stated that in one of the English cases, "the coroner concluded that the death was “natural” and that an inquest was not required." This was undoubtedly 14 year-old Gabrielle Price, whose death on 21 November 2009 was widely reported as having died, "after taking mephedrone." Only local Brighton newspaper The Argus bothered to relay the information (on 16 December) that, "A pathologist's report showed the 14-year-old died of broncho-pneumonia following a streptococcal A infection," yet the likes of The Telegraph, The Daily Mail, and The Sun continue to blame mephedrone many months later. Of the remaining sixteen English deaths, six had proved positive for mephedrone at post mortem, but all were still awaiting inquest.

Of the eight Scottish deaths mentioned in the np-SAD report, one was confirmed as, "Adverse effects of methadone and mephedrone." The heroin substitute methadone is, of course, already linked to literally hundreds of deaths in the UK every year. Mephedrone was detected in a second case, but "underlying health issues contributed to death." Of the remaining six, only one had tested positive for mephedrone. In the single Guernsey case, toxicology showed mephedrone was present, but it was still awaiting inquest.

In short, then, the case for such empahtic claims that mephedrone - and mephedrone alone - had "caused" 27 deaths is decidely wanting. Yet even so, let us remember the previous estimate of potentially at least 7,968,000 doses coming into the UK between 2007 and 2009. If even only Gabrielle Price's clearly non-attributable death is deducted from the total, reducing the number of deaths to 26, it would suggest that the odds of a single dose of mephedrone resulting in a death are 1 in 306,461 or 3.26 per million - about twice the risk of horse riding or MDMA, in fact. Of course, the reality is almost certainly that mephedrone was not solely responsible for all 26 deaths, so the odds will be even longer, even before factoring in the amount of mephedrone that could have been consumed between 1 January and 26 March 2010.

Tuesday, 6 April 2010

Fame at Last, Part 2!

The recent media frenzy over the "legal high" mephedrone that culminated in Alan "Postman Prat" Johnson's inevitable decision to ban it and other substituted cathinones prompted me to sent the following in to the Metro:
"In virtually every reported death linked to mephedrone, other drugs and/or alcohol were also involved. Louis Wainwright & Nicholas Smith drank all day, took mephedrone, and then took the opiate methadone. The latter was implicated in 378 deaths in England & Wales in 2008, so why is the media only interested in "blaming" the new/unfamiliar substance?

At the end of the day, the only thing that drives UK drug legislation is the puritanical moral conviction that if something gets people high, it must be "wrong," and therefore must be banned. Conversely, any adult can legally procure the means to drink themselves into either a liver-destroying stupor or a violent rage, or to smoke themselves into an early grave. Alcohol and tobacco together kill more people in the UK every two hours than all the deaths that have ever even remotely been linked to mephedrone and the other related cathinones.

All the non-scientifically trained ex-postman Johnson has achieved is to take the unregulated but largely legitimate and VAT-earning supply of high purity mephedrone and other cathinones, and handed it on a plate to unscrupulous criminals."
Considering most newspapers aversion to covering the subject fairly, I was minldly surprised when it appeared in the issue of Thursday 1 April, although obviously it was trimmed a bit:


More on this subject soon....

Tuesday, 16 June 2009

Ecstasy causes violence - official!

The occasional hack-job newspaper story does try to claim that use of Ecstasy leads to violent behaviour on the part of the users, but personally I've seen zero evidence for this and much evidence against it. My old mates at the Daily Mail, however, have come up with a new twist on this line, with a story of a father who went ape-shit after being told that his 18-year-old daughter had been dropping pills at a nearby private party in October 2007. Charges that 55-year-old Geoffrey Atkins attacked two men and was in possession of a knife were dropped, but he has just been convicted of assaulting two girls - both the same age as his daughter - one of whom he actually bit on the cheek. Yeah, very civilised. Incredibly, though (or maybe not), the judge reckoned that businessman and local parish councillor Atkins's behaviour, "was borne out of a 'natural concern' for the safety of his daughter," and let him walk free with a 12-month conditional discharge and £200 in court costs.

And the daughter? Despite the Mail inevitably invoking the memory of Leah Betts, it turns out she was only drunk at the time. This seems to have subsequently become something of a hobby for her, since she was given an ASBO in November 2008, banning her from being in such a state in public for two years. Classy.

Friday, 29 May 2009

Priorities

A rather amusing story on the BBC News website today, telling how a father found four claimed Ecstasy tablets inside the case of a secondhand console game:
"Richard Thornhill, 34, found the drugs under the front cover of X-Box game Grand Theft Auto IV, which he bought from Gamestation in Cheltenham.

Mr Thornhill said: "What made me feel the most distraught was the fact we let our 12-year-old play the game." "
Clearly, though, Mr Thornhill wasn't so concerned about letting his 12-year-old play an exceptionally violent 18-certificate game, in which drug-dealing plays no small part!

Friday, 13 February 2009

Fame at last!

Today - much to my amazement - I had an e-mail printed in the Daily Mail today. Amazement, because I sent it (on Monday 9 February) in response to their continued less-than-neutral coverage of the government's Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs's then pending reappriasal of the current legal status of MDMA (Ecstasy):
"Unsurprisingly, Melanie Phillips scoffs at the by-no-means-new comparison between the risk of death from taking Ecstasy, and that of horse-riding, but is it so absurd?

For many years, the "official" estimate for Ecstasy has been half a million instances of use each week (sometimes misreported as "half a million pills taken" - although it has been suggested that the real figure is at least four times as high). The total number of deaths in 2006 where Ecstasy was mentioned on death certifcates was 48, but the number of where it was the only drug mentioned was 26 (i.e. in 22 cases, other drugs were involved)**. Assuming half a million uses a week puts the risk of any one instance of use being linked to a death at between 1 in a million (Ecstasy alone) and 1.85 in a million (Ecstasy plus at least one other drug). Deaths from Ecstasy alone are inariably due to hyperthermia - overheating as a result of dancing in hot venues for prologed periods - or, in a small number of cases (such as Leah Betts), water-intoxication from drinking too much in an attempt to combat the same overheating. Both are avoidable and therefore inherently more attributable to ignorance on the part of users than Ecstasy itself.

Figures for horse-riding fatalities are hard to come by, but one study in 1999 showed that over a five year period there were 62 deaths for 39 million participations - a fatality risk of 1.59 in a million for any single event, clearly comparable to Ecstasy. In comparison, fishing, swimming/diving, and boating were all riskier than horse-riding.

The simple reality is that in purely numerical terms, Ecstasy is not particularly deadly, and is arguably as safe or safer than many legal and socially-acceptable hobbies and pastimes. Yes, it can and does kill unpredictably in a tiny minority of cases, but then so do peanuts. Some people develop mental problems after using Ecstasy, but the same can be said of alcohol. Ecstasy use may cause damage to certain internal organs, but so do cigarettes and alcohol.

Most importantly, the vast majority of the hundreds of thousands of people who will use Ecstasy this weekend - and every other weekend - will not see any other users around them suffering any ill effects at all, let alone fatal ones. In the face of users' own personal experience and observations, government and media propaganda that relies on exagerrating the fatal risk as the primary reason for not taking Ecstasy is inherently flawed and doomed to failure."
As was widely expected, Home Secretary Jacqui Smith chose emotion and playing to the political gallery - rather than the results of scientific investigation - and ignored the Council's recommendation that MDMA be downgraded to Class B.

Yikes! Friday the 13th!

Probably not the best day to start anything, let alone a blog, but here goes....